Bitcoin has re-ignited momentum in early July, breaking through key resistance levels and approaching the psychologically significant $110,000 mark for the first time in a month. After a period of consolidation, BTC demonstrated renewed strength during the Asian trading session on July 3, climbing above $108,500 and testing $110,000 amid shifting macroeconomic signals and growing institutional interest. While price action suggests bullish potential, derivatives data reveals lingering caution among professional traders—highlighting a market at a crossroads.
This surge comes against a backdrop of expanding global money supply and weakening labor data, factors that historically favor hard assets like Bitcoin. Yet despite nearing all-time highs, market sentiment remains measured rather than euphoric. Could this restraint set the stage for a more sustainable rally? And with major macro events looming in July, what should investors watch for?
👉 Discover how global economic shifts are fueling Bitcoin’s next move.
Breaking Through Resistance: The $110K Test
On July 2, Bitcoin surged past $109,000, briefly retesting the $105,200 resistance level during intraday fluctuations. This breakout marked a departure from weeks of tight-range trading and signaled renewed buying pressure. The move coincided with two critical macro developments:
- The Eurozone’s M2 money supply hit a record high in April, growing 2.7% year-over-year.
- U.S. ADP employment data revealed a surprising drop of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June.
These indicators point to loosening monetary conditions and economic uncertainty—environments where Bitcoin has historically thrived as a hedge against inflation and systemic risk.
Still, the rally lacks the speculative fervor typically seen near market tops. Futures premiums on Bitcoin remained below 5%, the neutral threshold, indicating that leveraged long positions have not spiked. This follows a trend observed since June 11, when a previous test of $110,000 briefly pushed sentiment into bullish territory before cooling off.
Derivatives Data: Calm Before the Storm?
Market structure offers clues about whether this rally has staying power. While spot prices climb, derivative metrics suggest professional traders are holding back.
The 25% delta skew in Bitcoin options—a gauge of fear or greed—currently sits at 0%. This means put and call option premiums are balanced, reflecting a neutral outlook. In contrast, readings above 6% typically signal panic as traders rush to buy downside protection.
This equilibrium is notable. It suggests that while traders aren’t aggressively betting on a crash, they’re also not piling into leveraged longs. Compared to the bearish skew seen on June 22, sentiment has improved—but only moderately.
Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, attributes this cautious optimism to upcoming U.S. policy decisions:
"July is filled with potential Trump volatility."
Three key dates stand out:
- July 9: Deadline for new U.S. tariffs; President Trump has threatened over 30% levies on Japanese imports if no deal is reached.
- July 15: Expected signing of the “Beautiful Big Bill,” a fiscal package projected to expand the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion—bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
- July 22: Final deadline for a long-anticipated executive order on cryptocurrency, potentially revealing plans for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve.
These events could inject significant volatility into both traditional and crypto markets.
👉 See how policy shifts could accelerate Bitcoin adoption.
China’s Crypto Pulse: Stablecoin Discount Signals Caution
Despite upward price momentum, demand in one of the world’s most influential crypto markets—China—appears weak. Data from OKX shows that Tether (USDT) is trading at a 1% discount to the Chinese yuan (CNY), the widest gap since mid-May.
This discount is telling:
- Premiums (USDT > CNY) reflect strong local demand for crypto exposure.
- Discounts signal capital outflows, often driven by profit-taking or risk aversion.
The current discount suggests Chinese investors remain skeptical of Bitcoin’s rally, possibly anticipating short-term pullbacks or reacting to global trade tensions.
Institutional Momentum Builds: Standard Chartered Raises Forecast
While retail sentiment wavers, institutions are stepping up. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick revised Bitcoin’s price forecast upward, citing robust corporate treasury adoption and sustained ETF inflows.
Key projections:
- Q3 2025: $135,000
- Q4 2025: $200,000
Kendrick argues that Bitcoin is poised for “the best-performing second half in history,” driven by structural shifts unseen in prior halving cycles:
"Bitcoin will refresh its historical high in the second half."
Unlike past cycles, this rally benefits from:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs channeling institutional capital.
- Corporate balance sheets actively accumulating BTC.
- Absence of post-halving sell-off patterns—historically expected between September and October 2025.
“The inertia of price declines 18 months after halvings has been broken,” Kendrick noted.
He acknowledges potential turbulence in Q3–Q4 2025 due to market psychology but expects ETF demand and treasury buying to provide strong support.
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👉 Explore expert insights on Bitcoin’s path to $200K.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Bitcoin rising despite low futures premiums?
A: Price increases can be driven by spot market demand—even without speculative leverage. Institutional buying via ETFs and corporate treasuries is currently outweighing derivatives activity.
Q: What does the USDT discount in China mean for Bitcoin?
A: A persistent discount suggests capital outflows from crypto in Asia, often signaling short-term caution. However, it doesn’t negate longer-term bullish trends driven by Western institutional demand.
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach $200,000?
A: Standard Chartered’s forecast is based on structural changes: ETF inflows, treasury adoption, and macro stimulus. While ambitious, $200K becomes plausible if current trends accelerate and volatility remains manageable.
Q: How might U.S. policy impact Bitcoin in July?
A: Tariff announcements, fiscal spending bills, and crypto-related executive orders could increase market volatility. Expansionary policies tend to benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin by weakening confidence in fiat systems.
Q: Is low options skew bullish or bearish?
A: A neutral skew (near 0%) indicates balanced risk perception—neither panic nor euphoria. This often precedes major moves, especially when catalysts like policy decisions loom.
Q: Has the post-halving downturn been avoided?
A: Analysts believe so. Previous cycles saw declines around 18 months after halvings (late 2025). But sustained buying pressure from new market participants may have disrupted this pattern.
Conclusion: A Quiet Buildup to Volatility?
Bitcoin’s climb toward $110,000 reflects more than technical breakout dynamics—it signals a shift in how markets perceive digital scarcity amid global economic strain. With futures leverage under control, options markets balanced, and Chinese demand subdued, the current rally lacks speculative excess.
Yet powerful forces are gathering: U.S. fiscal expansion, trade tensions, regulatory clarity, and relentless institutional accumulation. July may indeed become a month of “Trump volatility,” as K33’s Lunde warns—but this time, Bitcoin appears better equipped to weather the storm.
As Standard Chartered’s bold $200K forecast gains traction, one thing becomes clear: we’re no longer just watching price charts. We’re witnessing the integration of Bitcoin into the global financial system—one policy decision at a time.