The perception of a single breakout project often outweighs the cumulative impact of several solid mid-tier performers—and that’s perfectly natural.
In recent months, Binance LaunchPad has faced mixed reviews. Yet, the continued enthusiasm from the crypto community reflects the enduring value it brings—especially for early-stage investors. To cut through the noise, we’ve analyzed historical data from 2021 to present, evaluating actual returns, identifying trends, and answering a critical question: What is the real yield of holding BNB for LaunchPad participation?
We’ll compare LaunchPad performance against ETH staking yields, assess why current projects feel underwhelming despite strong metrics, and reveal whether BNB remains one of the most effective yield-generating assets in crypto.
Understanding Key Metrics
Before diving into results, let’s clarify the core indicators used in this analysis:
- First-Day Return: Price increase on the first full UTC+0 day after listing, compared to the IDO price.
- All-Time High (ATH) Return: Maximum price achieved since launch, relative to IDO price.
- BNB-Weighted First-Day ROI: How many BNB you’d receive by selling your allocation on day one.
- BNB-Weighted ATH ROI: Total BNB value if you sold at the project’s peak.
These metrics allow us to measure not just raw token performance, but the real utility of BNB as a gateway to alpha generation.
LaunchPad Performance: Stronger Than You Think
When averaging all LaunchPad projects since 2021:
- Median first-day return: 12.6x
- Median ATH return: 25.7x
- BNB-weighted first-day ROI: 0.015 BNB per 1 BNB staked
- BNB-weighted ATH ROI: 0.031 BNB per 1 BNB staked
Now consider the latest trio of projects launched since HOOK. Despite bear market conditions, they outperform historical medians across the board:
- First-day return median: 24.4x (1.9× historical average)
- ATH return: 1.4× higher than median
- BNB-weighted first-day ROI: 1.5× better
- BNB-weighted ATH ROI: 1.3× improvement
This means recent bear-market launches have been more profitable than most bull-market predecessors when measured in BNB terms. Even more encouraging: recent BNB-weighted first-day ROIs hover around 2%, offering predictable returns for arbitrageurs using spot-short or Venus-based borrowing strategies.
For traders seeking stable, repeatable gains, this consistency may be more valuable than chasing rare outliers.
Why Does It Feel Underwhelming?
If recent returns are strong, why do many users describe LaunchPad as “boring” or “underwhelming”?
The answer lies in psychological anchoring—a single explosive project like SFP or GMT creates a lasting impression.
Take GMT: it delivered a staggering 0.46 BNB return per 1 BNB staked at its peak. SFP was even more extreme—1.56 BNB returned for every 1 BNB invested. One successful allocation could fund dozens of future launches.
Compare that to today’s typical ATH ROI of 0.03–0.06 BNB, and the contrast is stark. No recent project has matched that magnitude of return—GMT launched over a year ago, and SFP before it. The absence of such breakout hits has dampened sentiment, even though average performance remains healthy.
Interestingly, SFP and GMT didn’t shine on day one—both had modest ~12x first-day gains, half of what HOOK or EDU achieved. Their magic unfolded over time. This suggests current projects still have room to grow—especially if market conditions improve.
BNB vs ETH Staking: Yield Comparison
Holding BNB isn’t just about access—it’s a yield-generating strategy. Let’s compare it to one of crypto’s most trusted passive income sources: ETH staking.
Since 2021 (~2.5 years):
- BNB LaunchPad only (first-day sell): 36% total return → ~14% annualized
- ETH staking (post-Merge): ~6–7% APR
- BNB LaunchPad + Launchpool rewards: 52% total return → ~21% annualized (nearly 3× ETH staking)
Even during the recent bear market (~1 year):
- BNB LaunchPad ROI: ~9.5% annualized
- ETH staking APR: ~6% (boosted by MEV)
→ BNB still delivers over 50% higher yield
👉 See how holding a utility token can outperform traditional staking in real yield terms.
Looking ahead:
- ETH staking yields may rise slightly with increased MEV, but higher adoption could dilute returns due to supply growth.
- BNB LaunchPad allocations remain stable (~$10M per launch), preserving scarcity and upside potential.
- With BNB’s faster burn rate accelerating deflation, price appreciation could further amplify returns.
In bull markets, this setup creates a double catalyst: more frequent launches + higher investor appetite = outsized gains. Historically, BNB’s LaunchPad yield has been over twice that of ETH staking during bullish cycles.
The Role of Utility and Ecosystem Growth
Yield metrics tell part of the story—but long-term returns depend on ecosystem vitality.
ETH’s strength lies in its dominant L2 ecosystem, driving usage and fee accrual. BNB Chain must continue innovating to maintain competitive traction. Recent upgrades and developer incentives show promise, but sustained growth is key.
Ultimately, the next bull cycle won’t reward passive holders alone—it will favor networks with real adoption, scalable infrastructure, and strong user retention.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Binance LaunchPad still profitable in the bear market?
Yes. Recent projects have delivered first-day returns nearly double the historical median. While no breakout stars have emerged yet, average performance remains strong—especially when measured in BNB terms.
Q: How does holding BNB compare to staking ETH?
Over the past 2.5 years, BNB’s combined LaunchPad and Launchpool yield (~21% annualized) has significantly outperformed ETH staking (~6–7%). Even conservatively, BNB offers over 50% higher returns in current conditions.
Q: Can I game the system using leverage or borrowing?
Some users employ strategies like borrowing BNB via Venus or shorting post-IDO to lock in profits. With recent first-day ROIs stabilizing around 2%, these approaches offer predictable risk/reward—if managed carefully.
Q: Why haven’t we seen another SFP or GMT?
Breakout projects require both innovation and timing. Many 2021–2022 launches benefited from frothy market conditions and Ponzi-like mechanics now less viable in the bear market. True fundamentals take longer to unfold—current projects may still surprise.
Q: Does BNB’s token burn impact returns?
Yes. BNB’s quarterly burns accelerate supply contraction, especially during high exchange volume. This deflationary pressure supports long-term price appreciation, indirectly boosting all yield strategies tied to BNB holdings.
Q: Should I hold BNB just for LaunchPad access?
If you participate regularly, yes. Beyond allocation rights, you earn from Launchpool rewards, trading fee discounts, and exposure to early-stage projects—all while benefiting from a deflationary asset with proven yield advantages over major alternatives like ETH staking.
While the lack of moonshot projects has dulled sentiment, data shows Binance LaunchPad remains one of crypto’s most reliable sources of alpha. For disciplined investors, consistent 2% first-day ROIs and a robust ecosystem make BNB a compelling long-term hold—especially when compared to slower-growing alternatives like ETH staking.
As market conditions evolve, BNB’s combination of utility, deflation, and early-access privilege positions it uniquely for both stability and explosive upside when the next bull run begins.