The rise of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States has marked a pivotal shift in the digital asset landscape. With on-chain holdings now exceeding 112.8 million BTC—representing 5.7% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply—these institutional vehicles have officially surpassed the estimated holdings of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s elusive creator. This unprecedented accumulation signals a deepening institutional embrace of BTC, driven by evolving regulatory expectations and macroeconomic tailwinds.
As demand continues to surge, a growing supply and demand imbalance is emerging—one that experts believe could propel Bitcoin’s price to historic highs in the coming years.
Bitcoin ETFs Now Hold More Than Satoshi Nakamoto
According to data from Dune Analytics, U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs have collectively amassed over 112.8 million BTC. This milestone not only underscores the rapid adoption of regulated crypto investment products but also places ETF providers among the largest known holders of Bitcoin.
For context, Satoshi Nakamoto, widely believed to be the pseudonymous inventor of Bitcoin, mined over 1 million BTC during the network’s earliest days. These coins—spread across more than 22,000 unique addresses—have remained untouched for over a decade. While estimates range from 1 million to 1.1 million BTC, the consensus is that these coins are effectively lost or permanently locked, given the absence of any movement since their creation.
With ETFs now surpassing even the upper bound of that estimate, a new era of centralized ownership has begun—one dominated not by anonymous pioneers, but by regulated financial institutions and asset managers.
This shift marks a turning point: Bitcoin is no longer just a grassroots experiment. It has become a core component of institutional portfolios, backed by Wall Street giants and accessible to retail investors through traditional brokerage accounts.
Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Is Accelerating
The momentum behind Bitcoin ETFs reflects a broader transformation in how institutions view digital assets. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, revealed in a recent Bloomberg interview that 40% of meetings with registered investment advisors (RIAs) and institutional investors since October have resulted in commitments to allocate funds to Bitcoin—up sharply from just 10% earlier in the year.
Similarly, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research, noted that his phone “hasn’t stopped ringing.” RIAs, many of whom previously maintained zero exposure to cryptocurrencies, are now actively seeking ways to integrate Bitcoin into client portfolios.
This surge in institutional interest coincides with shifting political dynamics. With Donald Trump poised to return to the White House in 2025, expectations of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment are fueling optimism across markets. A potential rollback of restrictive policies under previous administrations could further accelerate adoption, making it easier for pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies to invest in Bitcoin.
Why Supply Constraints Will Drive Bitcoin’s Price Higher
At the heart of Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition is its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed indefinitely, Bitcoin’s scarcity is mathematically enforced. New coins are introduced through mining, with block rewards halving approximately every four years—a process known as the Bitcoin halving.
The most recent halving in April 2024 reduced daily issuance from 900 BTC to 450 BTC per day, translating to an annual supply growth rate of just ~164,250 BTC—barely half of what MicroStrategy alone holds in its treasury.
This shrinking inflow contrasts sharply with rising demand:
- ETF inflows continue at record pace
- Institutional adoption is accelerating
- Global macro uncertainty is boosting safe-haven demand
- Lost or dormant coins reduce effective circulating supply
Estimates suggest that between 3 million and 4 million BTC may already be irretrievably lost due to forgotten private keys, damaged hardware wallets, or death of early holders. Add to this the 1.1 million BTC believed to be held by Satoshi Nakamoto, which show no signs of movement, and the effective supply available for trading becomes even tighter.
Edward Chin, Co-Founder of Parataxis Capital, warns that unless prices rise significantly to incentivize long-term holders to sell, there simply won’t be enough Bitcoin to satisfy growing demand from ETFs, sovereign wealth funds, and international institutions.
“We’re entering a phase where structural scarcity meets explosive demand,” Chin explains. “Unless we see massive price appreciation, the market cannot balance.”
Could Bitcoin Reach $500,000—or Even $1 Million?
Chin projects that Bitcoin could climb beyond $500,000**, depending on U.S. policy decisions and global macro trends. In a scenario where BTC becomes integrated into the global monetary system—similar to gold’s role today—he believes prices could approach **$1 million per coin when adjusted for inflation and monetary expansion.
While such forecasts once seemed like fantasy, they are now being seriously considered by mainstream economists and fund managers alike.
Consider this: if Bitcoin were to represent just 5% of global gold reserves by market value, and gold remains stable, BTC would need to trade at approximately $750,000 per coin. Given increasing recognition of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” this scenario is no longer far-fetched.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What does it mean that ETFs hold more Bitcoin than Satoshi?
It means that collectively, U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs now control more BTC than the estimated amount held by Bitcoin’s creator. This reflects the institutionalization of Bitcoin and highlights how quickly regulated products have captured market share.
Why can’t we spend Satoshi’s Bitcoin?
Satoshi’s coins remain unspent because their private keys are either lost or inaccessible. Since no transaction has ever originated from those early blocks, and given the presumed death or disappearance of Satoshi Nakamoto, these coins are widely considered permanently locked.
How do ETFs affect Bitcoin’s price?
ETFs create sustained buying pressure by channeling billions in traditional capital into Bitcoin without requiring direct ownership. With limited seller activity to offset inflows, this imbalance pushes prices upward over time.
Will more countries approve Bitcoin spot ETFs?
Yes—several jurisdictions including Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, and members of the EU are actively reviewing or have already launched spot Bitcoin ETFs. As regulatory clarity improves globally, adoption is expected to expand beyond the U.S.
Is Bitcoin still scarce if ETFs hold so much?
Yes. Scarcity isn’t diminished by concentration—it’s reinforced. The fact that large amounts are held long-term (especially by ETFs with buy-and-hold strategies) reduces liquid supply, increasing scarcity for traders and investors seeking exposure.
Could government actions impact Bitcoin’s price?
Absolutely. Regulatory support—or crackdowns—can significantly influence sentiment and access. Positive developments like ETF approvals or tax clarity boost confidence, while hostile policies may trigger short-term volatility.
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Final Thoughts: The Era of Institutional Dominance Has Begun
Bitcoin is undergoing a fundamental transformation—from decentralized ideal to institutional asset. The fact that spot ETFs now hold more BTC than Satoshi symbolizes this shift perfectly.
With supply growth slowing, demand rising, and confidence strengthening, the stage is set for a new chapter in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Whether it reaches $500,000 or $1 million depends on macro forces, adoption curves, and policy decisions—but one thing is clear: the era of scarcity-driven valuation is here.
For investors, the message is simple: in a world of infinite fiat money, finite digital assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly valuable—not just as investments, but as foundational pillars of future financial systems.