Bitcoin (BTC) is once again capturing the attention of investors and analysts as it hovers near the $87,300 mark in late March. Despite short-term consolidation, a growing wave of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic signals suggests a powerful breakout could be on the horizon—potentially propelling Bitcoin toward $150,000 by late April or early May.
With momentum building across multiple fronts, market participants are closely watching key resistance levels and global liquidity trends for confirmation of the next major move.
Technical Patterns Signal Imminent Breakout
Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range between $83,500 and $87,500, consolidating after a strong rally earlier in the year. While short-term price action appears sideways, deeper technical analysis reveals a more bullish narrative.
One of the most compelling patterns forming on the charts is the falling wedge, identified by prominent technical analyst Mister Crypto. This pattern—characterized by lower highs and lower lows converging downward—typically signals weakening bearish pressure and often precedes strong upward breakouts.
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Historically, Bitcoin has rallied an average of 67.5% over 54 days following confirmed falling wedge breakouts. Based on this precedent, Mister Crypto forecasts a potential 77% upside, which would place BTC well into six-figure territory during the second quarter of 2025.
In addition to the falling wedge, another bullish structure has emerged: the double bottom formation near $80,000. Analyst Cas Abbé highlights this pattern as a sign of strong support after Bitcoin corrected nearly 30% from its January highs.
Abbé projects that once BTC clears the immediate resistance at $86,800–$90,774, it could surge toward $90,000–$92,000 in the short term. After a brief correction, he anticipates the next leg of the rally could push prices toward the $150,000 target, aligning with broader bullish sentiment across the market.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds Point to Late April Rally
Beyond technicals, macroeconomic indicators are adding fuel to the bullish case. One of the most intriguing correlations comes from macro analyst “The M2 Guy,” who has drawn attention to Bitcoin’s historical relationship with global M2 money supply.
His analysis shows that Bitcoin’s price tends to follow changes in global liquidity with a 107-day lag. With sustained expansion in money supply across major economies—including the U.S., EU, and parts of Asia—this metric suggests a vertical price move could begin around April 30.
If current liquidity trends continue, the rally could last for up to two months, providing a strong foundation for new all-time highs. While no exact price target was given, previous commentary from the analyst has indicated that a move beyond $140,000 is entirely plausible under these conditions.
This macro-driven narrative reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a liquidity-sensitive asset, reacting not just to on-chain or technical factors, but to broader financial system dynamics.
On-Chain Activity Confirms Growing Investor Confidence
While charts and economic data provide context, on-chain metrics offer real-time insight into investor behavior—and the signals are strongly bullish.
On-chain analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted a major transfer of 10,000 BTC (worth approximately $842.9 million) from exchange wallets to self-custody addresses. Such outflows are widely interpreted as a sign of long-term accumulation, indicating that large holders (often referred to as "whales") are taking control of their assets rather than leaving them exposed to market volatility on exchanges.
This movement reduces immediate selling pressure and strengthens the case for higher prices ahead.
Additionally, derivatives data paints a balanced but optimistic picture. As of March 23, Bitcoin’s open interest stood at $51.98 billion—a slight dip of 1.77%, suggesting reduced speculative leverage. Options interest also declined marginally to $33.51 billion.
However, more telling is the liquidation data: over a 12-hour period, short liquidations reached $806,000, outpacing long liquidations. This means bearish bets are being aggressively wiped out, often a precursor to upward price momentum as bulls absorb selling pressure.
The long-short ratio remains near neutral at 0.9589, with exchanges like Binance and OKX showing a slight preference for long positions—further supporting upward bias.
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Key Levels to Watch in April
Despite the optimistic outlook, technical resistance remains a critical factor. A clean breakout above **$90,774** is required to confirm bullish dominance and open the path toward $150,000.
Until then, traders should monitor:
- Immediate resistance: $86,800 – $87,500
- Strong resistance: $90,774
- Support level to defend: $83,500
A failure to hold above $83,500 could trigger a deeper pullback, potentially retesting the double bottom near $80,000. However, given the confluence of positive signals—from technical patterns to macro liquidity—many analysts believe any dip will be met with strong buying interest.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a falling wedge pattern in Bitcoin trading?
A: A falling wedge is a bullish reversal pattern formed by converging trendlines connecting lower highs and lower lows. It typically signals weakening selling pressure and often precedes strong upward breakouts in Bitcoin’s price.
Q: Why is global M2 money supply important for Bitcoin’s price?
A: Bitcoin has shown a historical correlation with global liquidity trends. Increases in M2 (broad money supply) often lead to more capital flowing into risk assets like Bitcoin, especially with a time lag of around 107 days.
Q: What do exchange outflows mean for Bitcoin’s price?
A: When large amounts of BTC are moved from exchanges to private wallets, it indicates long-term holding sentiment. This reduces available supply for immediate sale, decreasing selling pressure and supporting price growth.
Q: Is $150,000 a realistic target for Bitcoin in 2025?
A: While no prediction is guaranteed, multiple technical patterns, historical precedents, and macroeconomic conditions suggest that a move toward $150,000 is within reach if current trends hold through April and May.
Q: What happens if Bitcoin fails to break $90,774?
A: Failure to突破 this resistance could result in continued consolidation or a short-term pullback. However, as long as support at $83,500 holds, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
Q: How reliable are analyst price predictions for Bitcoin?
A: Analyst forecasts are based on historical data and current trends but are not guarantees. Investors should use them as part of a broader research strategy and always consider risk management.
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Final Outlook: A Perfect Storm for Bitcoin?
The convergence of technical patterns like the falling wedge and double bottom, rising investor confidence reflected in exchange outflows, and expanding global liquidity creates what many are calling a “perfect storm” for Bitcoin’s next leg up.
With all eyes on late April—particularly around April 30—markets are poised for volatility and potential explosive growth. If Bitcoin breaks decisively above $90,774 and sustains momentum into May, a journey toward **$150,000** may not be just speculation—but an unfolding reality.
As always, traders should remain vigilant, monitor key levels closely, and prepare for both upside opportunities and downside risks in one of the most dynamic markets of 2025.
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