As the cryptocurrency market approaches a pivotal week marked by the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a temporary pullback, cooling off from recent highs. The price has retreated to the critical $95,000 level—previously a resistance that flipped into support after a breakout. While volatility looms, technical indicators suggest that bullish momentum could resume if key support levels hold.
With macroeconomic sentiment playing a growing role in crypto price action, traders are closely watching for signals of a “risk-on” environment. Notably, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson recently suggested that BTC could surge to $135,000 within 100 days if conditions align—particularly a drop in the CBOE Volatility Index below 18, declining interest rates, and strong performance during historically favorable months like June and July.
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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Holding the Line at $95,000
Bitcoin broke above $95,000 on May 1, signaling strong bullish momentum. However, the rally stalled near $97,895 on May 2, followed by a pullback to the breakout zone. The immediate fate of BTC hinges on whether buyers can defend the $95,000 level.
On the daily chart, the upsloping 20-day EMA at $92,106** and an RSI in positive territory indicate that buyers still maintain an edge. A bounce from the $95,000–$92,106 range could reignite the push toward **$100,000, with further upside potential to $107,000 if momentum returns.
However, a close below the 20-day EMA would raise concerns of a bull trap, potentially opening the door for a decline to the 50-day SMA at $86,682. The 4-hour chart shows weakening momentum—flattened moving averages and an RSI nearing neutral ground—suggesting short-term consolidation or downside risk.
To reclaim control, bulls must push and sustain prices above $97,895. Failure to do so may prolong sideways movement or invite further selling pressure.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch:
- Support: $95,000 (breakout level), $92,106 (20-day EMA), $86,682 (50-day SMA)
- Resistance: $97,895 (recent high), $100,000 (psychological barrier), $107,000 (next target)
Altcoin Spotlight: HYPE, AAVE, RNDR, and FET Show Strength
While Bitcoin stabilizes ahead of macroeconomic events, several altcoins are displaying strong bullish patterns across daily and 4-hour timeframes. Let’s explore their technical outlooks.
Hyperliquid (HYPE): Testing Resistance at $21.50
Hyperliquid is consolidating near a key resistance level at $21.50**. Despite selling pressure, bulls have maintained control by holding prices above the **20-day EMA ($18.48). The RSI near overbought levels reinforces upward momentum.
A confirmed close above $21.50 could trigger the next leg up toward **$25, followed by $27.50**. Conversely, a breakdown below the 20-day EMA may prompt short-term profit-taking, dragging HYPE down to **$17.35**, a strong support zone.
The 4-hour chart shows bulls defending the EMA aggressively. A strong bounce here could challenge resistance again—making this a high-potential breakout candidate.
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Aave (AAVE): Bullish Reversal Gains Traction
Aave reversed from its moving averages on April 30, signaling renewed buying interest. The daily chart shows positive momentum building toward $196, where bears are expected to mount strong resistance.
If price rejects $196 but holds above the 20-day EMA, it increases the odds of a future breakout. A successful move above resistance could propel AAVE toward **$220, then $240**.
On the flip side, if bears pull price below the moving averages, a collapse to $130 becomes possible.
The 4-hour chart reveals temporary selling near **$180**, but bulls continue to defend the moving averages. A breakout above $180 could accelerate gains toward $196, with minor resistance at $190 likely to be overcome.
Render (RNDR): Critical Support at $4.22
Render faced rejection at $4.87**, pulling back to test the **20-day EMA ($4.31) and key support at **$4.22**. This zone is crucial—if bulls defend it strongly, a rebound toward $4.87 remains likely.
A successful break above $4.87 could ignite momentum toward **$6.20. However, failure to hold $4.22 may lead to further downside toward the **50-day SMA ($3.80) and eventually $3.55.
The 4-hour chart shows sellers testing support at $4.22. A strong reversal here might result in a sideways range between **$4.22 and $4.87**, setting up for a future breakout.
Fetch.ai (FET): Testing Demand at $0.67
Fetch.ai pulled back from resistance at $0.84** to test the **20-day EMA ($0.65) and critical support at $0.67. Bulls are attempting to stabilize price action here.
A strong rebound from $0.67 could allow FET to retest moving averages and eventually challenge $0.84 again. A close above that level opens the path to $1.09.
Conversely, a breakdown below $0.67 suggests weakening demand and could push price toward **$0.60. Alternatively, if buyers step in and push price above the moving averages, a range between $0.67 and $0.80** may form before the next leg up.
Market Outlook: Fed Decision Looms Large
The broader crypto market remains sensitive to macroeconomic cues. With the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on the horizon, traders anticipate volatility regardless of whether a cut occurs—especially given the low probability priced in for May 7.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $92,000–$95,000 will be vital for maintaining bullish sentiment across altcoins. Historically strong months like June and July could amplify gains if macro conditions improve.
Core Keywords:
- Bitcoin price prediction
- HYPE price forecast
- AAVE technical analysis
- RNDR price outlook
- FET price prediction
- crypto market volatility
- Fed rate decision impact
- altcoin bullish patterns
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What happens if Bitcoin breaks below $92,000?
A: A breakdown below the 20-day EMA at $92,106 could signal short-term bearish reversal, potentially leading to a drop toward the 50-day SMA at $86,682.
Q: Is Hyperliquid likely to reach $25?
A: Yes—if HYPE clears $21.50 with strong volume, the path opens toward $25 and then $27.50, supported by positive momentum on both daily and 4-hour charts.
Q: Why is the Fed rate decision important for crypto?
A: Lower interest rates reduce yields on traditional assets, making risk-on investments like crypto more attractive. Even expectations of future cuts can boost market sentiment.
Q: Can Aave reach $240?
A: It’s possible if bulls maintain control above moving averages and break past $196 resistance. Strong volume on breakout would increase confidence in reaching $220–$240 targets.
Q: What is the significance of the $4.22 level for Render?
A: It's a key support level—if broken, it could trigger further selling toward $3.80. Holding it increases chances of range formation and eventual breakout above $4.87.
Q: What drives Fetch.ai’s potential move to $1.09?
A: A confirmed breakout above $0.84 resistance is required. This would confirm renewed buying pressure and validate bullish continuation toward $1.09.
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