Bitcoin Mining Progress Reaches 89% — Are Miners Still Influential?

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Bitcoin has come a long way since its inception on January 3, 2009. With over 18.7 million BTC already mined—89% of the total 21 million cap—the network is rapidly approaching its final supply. As the mining reward continues to halve every four years, the daily output has dropped to around 900 BTC. This shrinking supply raises a crucial question: Are Bitcoin miners still influential in shaping market dynamics?

Recent on-chain data shows that miner outflows to exchanges are at their lowest in a year. According to CryptoQuant, miners are increasingly holding rather than selling their BTC, signaling confidence in long-term value. Meanwhile, institutional demand—led by firms like Grayscale and MicroStrategy—has surged, further diminishing the relative impact of miner sell pressure.

With only about 2.27 million BTC left to mine and the next halving expected in 2028 (reducing daily issuance to just 450 BTC), the role of miners is evolving. No longer the dominant sellers they once were, they are transitioning into network stewards whose influence is now more structural than market-moving.

👉 Discover how miner behavior shapes Bitcoin’s future market cycles.

Miners: From Net Sellers to Strategic Holders

Bitcoin’s decentralized issuance relies entirely on miners. Unlike investors who buy BTC, miners earn it through computational work, making them natural sellers due to operational costs—hardware, electricity, and infrastructure—all priced in fiat.

Historically, miner sell-offs were often blamed for price drops, especially during early market cycles when their holdings and daily output made up a larger share of circulating supply. But today’s landscape is different.

Grayscale alone acquired nearly 200,000 BTC between October 2023 and February 2024—an average of 1,621 BTC per day—far exceeding the network’s daily production of ~900 BTC. This surge in institutional accumulation highlights a shift: demand now significantly outpaces new supply, reducing miner influence.

Miner Reserves vs. Institutional Holdings

This data confirms that institutional players now dominate the demand side. Even during periods of market stress, miner outflows remain minimal.

Recent Glassnode and CryptoQuant data show:

CoinMetrics’ report “Following Flows II: Where Do Miners Sell?” concluded that miner activity shows no significant correlation with price declines, debunking the myth that miners drive bear markets.

Market Dynamics Shift: Short-Term Traders Now Drive Volatility

With 89% of Bitcoin already mined, the market’s behavior is increasingly shaped not by miners, but by short-term holders and speculative investors.

As江卓尔 (Liang Zhaor) once explained, Bitcoin demand breaks down into:

  1. Store of value (long-term holding)
  2. Usage (payments, remittances)
  3. Speculation (trading, short-term gains)

Supply comes from:

  1. Miner sell-offs
  2. Profit-taking by investors

It’s the interplay between speculative demand and investor supply that causes most price volatility.

Glassnode’s Week 22 report revealed that in May alone, 155,000 BTC exited long-term "hodling" status, with short-term holder sell volume increasing fivefold. This aligns with profit-taking by institutions and retail investors who entered during the 2023–2024 bull run.

Examples include:

These actions reflect investor sentiment—not miner behavior—as the primary driver of recent price corrections.

Why Miner Metrics Still Matter

Despite declining direct market impact, miner behavior remains a valuable sentiment and network health indicator.

1. Miners as Long-Term Believers

Mining requires long-term capital investment. Once deployed, mining rigs operate for years. This makes miners de facto long-term supporters of Bitcoin’s value. Sudden large-scale sell-offs could signal loss of confidence.

2. Puell Multiple: A Tool for Cycle Timing

The Puell Multiple measures miner profitability:

(Daily issuance value in USD) / (365-day moving average of daily issuance value)

This metric helps identify market extremes and can precede major trend reversals.

3. Legacy Wallet Movements Trigger Market Reactions

Even rare events—like dormant wallets linked to early mining or suspected Satoshi Nakamoto addresses—can cause short-term panic or euphoria when they move funds.

These “whale watch” moments underscore how miner-related addresses still carry psychological weight in the community.

👉 Track real-time miner flows and on-chain sentiment shifts here.

FAQ: Understanding Miner Influence in 2025

Q: Do Bitcoin miners still affect price movements?
A: Their direct impact has diminished due to reduced daily supply and strong institutional demand. However, large-scale miner sell-offs can still signal market tops.

Q: What happens when all Bitcoin is mined?
A: Miners will rely solely on transaction fees for revenue. Their continued participation depends on sufficient fee income and rising BTC prices to offset declining block rewards.

Q: Why is Bitcoin’s fee income so low compared to Ethereum?
A: Bitcoin’s limited smart contract functionality results in lower on-chain activity. Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem generates far more transactions and higher fees.

Q: Can Bitcoin sustain security without block rewards?
A: Yes, but only if transaction demand grows enough to make fees economically viable for miners—a challenge given current usage trends.

Q: Are miners switching to Ethereum?
A: Some have, especially during ETH’s pre-merge mining era. Today, Ethereum no longer uses proof-of-work, but its higher historical fee income highlighted Bitcoin’s scalability limitations.

Q: How can I monitor miner behavior?
A: Use on-chain analytics platforms to track metrics like exchange inflows, reserve levels, and the Puell Multiple.

The Future of Bitcoin Mining: Challenges Ahead

The Block reported that in May 2025:

While Ethereum has moved to proof-of-stake, this comparison underscores a key issue: Bitcoin’s fee market is underdeveloped.

Revenue Breakdown (May 2025):

The gap stems from:

Glassnode notes that Bitcoin’s active address count is at a one-year low, reflecting low transactional use.

The Fee Sustainability Dilemma

When block rewards disappear post-2140, miners will depend entirely on fees. But current trends suggest challenges:

Additionally:

Unless Bitcoin sees a surge in on-chain utility or Layer-2 adoption accelerates, fee income may struggle to replace block rewards.

Final Thoughts: Miners’ Role Is Evolving

Bitcoin mining is no longer just about earning rewards—it's about securing a global financial network. As issuance dwindles, miners transition from profit-driven sellers to essential infrastructure providers.

Their influence on price may wane, but their importance to network security remains paramount. The key question isn’t whether miners still move markets—it’s whether the ecosystem can evolve to support them when block rewards vanish.

For investors and analysts, monitoring miner behavior—through exchange flows, reserve changes, and profitability metrics—remains crucial for understanding broader market sentiment.

👉 Stay ahead of market shifts with real-time Bitcoin analytics and insights.