Ethereum Under Pressure? Exchange Inflows Spike as ETF Demand Slows

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Ethereum is showing signs of short-term stress as exchange inflows surge and spot ETF demand cools. While the long-term outlook for ETH remains optimistic among analysts, recent on-chain movements suggest growing selling pressure from large holders — a development that could weigh on price momentum in early July.

With nearly 100,000 ETH flowing into centralized exchanges and major staking withdrawals detected, market participants are watching closely for potential downside risks. At the same time, spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. continue to attract capital, though at a noticeably slower pace than earlier in June.

This article dives into the latest data, analyzes whale behavior, and explores what it could mean for Ethereum’s price trajectory in the coming weeks.

Sharp Rise in Exchange Inflows Raises Red Flags

On-chain metrics point to a notable shift in Ethereum holder behavior. According to data from CryptoQuant, Binance received almost 100,000 ETH — valued at approximately $250 million — on July 1, 2025. This marks the largest single-day inflow to the exchange in over a month.

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Historically, large deposits of ETH into centralized exchanges often precede price corrections or extended consolidation phases. When whales move significant amounts of cryptocurrency to exchanges, it typically indicates an intention to sell, either to lock in profits or rebalance portfolios.

Further analysis reveals that a major entity recently withdrew 95,313 ETH from staking contracts using two wallet addresses. Of that amount, 68,182 ETH (around $165 million) was transferred to centralized platforms including HTX, OKX, and Bybit.

Given the entity’s estimated average staking cost of $2,878 per ETH**, compared to the current market price near **$2,431, this move represents a paper loss of roughly $42.6 million. Such a decision may reflect a stop-loss strategy or broader portfolio restructuring amid uncertain market conditions.

This kind of activity increases circulating supply and adds downward pressure on price, especially if executed during periods of low buying volume.

ETF Inflows Slow Amid Cooling Investor Appetite

While exchange inflows signal potential selling pressure, another key metric — spot Ethereum ETF net inflows — also shows signs of weakening momentum.

Data from Sosovalue indicates that although U.S.-listed ETH ETFs continue to register positive net inflows, the pace has sharply declined. Net inflows dropped from over $240 million on June 11** to just **$40 million by July 1.

This slowdown suggests that institutional and retail investor appetite may be cooling temporarily. After the initial excitement following ETF approvals, capital deployment appears to be stabilizing — a common pattern seen after major market milestones.

Still, the fact that inflows remain positive is encouraging. It implies sustained confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value proposition, even if short-term enthusiasm has waned.

Seasonal Trends Add Further Caution

Historical performance data adds another layer of context. According to Coinglass, Q3 (July–September) has historically been Ethereum’s weakest quarter. On average, ETH has delivered a mere 0.59% return during this period over past cycles.

While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, seasonal trends can influence trader sentiment and liquidity flows. Combined with rising exchange reserves and slowing ETF demand, this seasonal headwind may contribute to sideways or slightly bearish price action in the near term.

Amr Taha, analyst at CryptoQuant, summarized the current crossroads:

“The long-term bullish outlook for Ethereum remains intact, depending on an improvement in broader macroeconomic conditions. However, Ethereum could face a slight short-term pullback.”

Why Experts Still Believe in Ethereum’s Long-Term Upside

Despite short-term caution, many experts maintain a strongly positive view on Ethereum’s long-term potential.

MEXC Research highlighted key catalysts driving future growth:

These developments are expected to enhance investor confidence and improve network fundamentals.

“With risk appetite slowly returning to the market, along with stabilizing geopolitical situation and improved global liquidity, ETH looks well-positioned for further gains in the coming weeks. If current momentum persists and macro conditions remain favorable, a move towards $3,000 and potentially $3,300 seems increasingly plausible. Conversely, a black swan event may trigger a break below $2,350 and cause a steeper decline towards $2,100,” MEXC Research noted.

Similarly, Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, emphasized Ethereum’s strong on-chain activity and technical upgrades:

“Ethereum is gaining notable momentum, buoyed by its validator backbone upgrade, which has improved staking efficiency and contributed to reduced ETH supply… In the near term, Ethereum may test the $2,800–$3,000 range by mid-July.”

Reduced issuance due to more efficient staking mechanics supports scarcity dynamics — a critical factor for price appreciation over time.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What does high exchange inflow mean for Ethereum's price?
A: Large inflows of ETH into centralized exchanges often signal that holders are preparing to sell. This increases sell-side pressure and can lead to price drops or consolidation, especially if not matched by strong buying demand.

Q: Are Ethereum ETFs still attracting investment?
A: Yes, but at a slower rate. While net inflows remain positive, they’ve decreased significantly from early June highs. This suggests investor caution rather than a reversal in sentiment.

Q: Why would a whale sell ETH at a loss?
A: Whales may sell at a loss due to liquidity needs, portfolio diversification, or risk management strategies. A loss on paper doesn’t always reflect failure — it can be part of a larger financial plan.

Q: Is Ethereum still a good long-term investment?
A: Many analysts believe so. Upgrades to staking infrastructure, regulatory clarity, strong developer activity, and growing institutional adoption support ETH’s long-term value case.

Q: Could Ethereum reach $3,000 this year?
A: Multiple analysts project that under favorable macro conditions and sustained demand, ETH could reach $3,000 by late summer or fall 2025 — with some optimistic targets extending to $3,300.

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The convergence of technical upgrades, regulatory progress, and resilient ETF demand paints a fundamentally strong picture for Ethereum over the long run. However, short-term volatility driven by whale movements and seasonal patterns should not be ignored.

Investors are advised to monitor key levels:

A break above resistance could reignite bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to hold support might open the door to deeper corrections.

As always, combining on-chain insights with macroeconomic awareness offers the best path forward in navigating uncertain markets.

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