Bitcoin (BTC) has once again captured headlines by reaching new all-time highs, but beneath the surface, a growing chorus of traders and analysts is sounding the alarm: the current bull run may be running out of steam. Despite a strong upward trajectory and seven consecutive green weekly candles, market sentiment is shifting toward caution. Many believe that while the rally has been impressive, it’s showing clear signs of fatigue—hinting at an impending correction or even the start of the next bear market.
This article explores why experts are warning of a potential downturn, what historical patterns suggest about Bitcoin’s future price action, and how investors can prepare for what might come next in the 2025 cycle.
The Bull Market May Be Nearing Its End
While Bitcoin continues to break records—surpassing previous peaks and drawing renewed institutional interest—many seasoned traders argue that these highs don’t tell the full story. For some, especially those who follow technical cycles closely, the euphoria feels overdue and unsustainable.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC/USD reached historic levels this quarter despite already posting a one-third gain in Q2 alone. Yet, long-term technical analysis suggests that this momentum could soon reverse. Rather than signaling further gains, analysts believe the market is entering a phase of consolidation—or worse, a full-blown correction.
One widely followed market resource, Stockmoney Lizards, recently revisited its Bitcoin cycle roadmap originally published in December 2023. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), the team overlaid their projected timeline with actual price performance.
“In December 2023, we released this BTC roadmap. I’ve now superimposed the real chart over the same timeframe. While prices are slightly lower, the timeline remains remarkably accurate.”
The updated projection points to a cycle top in Q4 2025, followed by a bear market decline that could pull Bitcoin back down to around $69,000—the level of its previous all-time high set in 2021.
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Historical Patterns Suggest an Imminent Pullback
Another key argument for an upcoming correction comes from comparative price action analysis. Traders like Crypto Chase highlight how current prices are significantly extended above key moving averages—specifically the 21-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
On a weekly BTC/USD chart, such deviations have historically preceded sharp pullbacks.
“Every time price moves far away from the EMA—like in the circled areas—we always see a correction,” Crypto Chase noted in a recent X update.
“Even if this pullback is brief before another leg up, it’s still a correction.”
This kind of technical overextension often acts as a magnet for profit-taking, especially after prolonged rallies. With BTC having climbed steadily since early 2023, many investors may now be looking to lock in gains before volatility returns.
Although increased institutional adoption—such as spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and corporate treasury allocations—has added structural support to the market, historical patterns remain relevant. Previous cycles show that no bull market lasts forever, and the most dangerous phase is often the final blow-off top when sentiment turns irrationally exuberant.
Bitcoin “Looks Exhausted” — Technical Warning Signs Mount
Beyond moving averages, other technical indicators are flashing caution signals. One of the most telling is Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence, highlighted by trader Roman in a recent analysis shared on social media.
Roman pointed to a bearish RSI divergence on the weekly BTC/USD chart—a scenario where price makes a higher high, but momentum fails to confirm it, instead forming a lower high. This decoupling between price and momentum often precedes trend reversals.
“Bitcoin looks exhausted,” Roman wrote. “We’re seeing classic signs of late-stage euphoria without underlying strength.”
Such conditions were present before both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. While they don’t guarantee an immediate crash, they do increase the probability of a significant correction, especially if macroeconomic headwinds—like rising interest rates or risk-off investor behavior—come into play.
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Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
To better understand what’s shaping current discourse, here are the core keywords dominating Bitcoin discussions:
- Bitcoin price prediction
- BTC bull market end
- Bitcoin cycle top
- Crypto bear market 2025
- BTC technical analysis
- Bitcoin $69k target
- Market exhaustion signals
- Institutional Bitcoin adoption
These terms reflect both technical expectations and broader investor psychology. They also align with strong search intent from users trying to navigate uncertain markets.
FAQ: Addressing Key Investor Concerns
Q: Is Bitcoin really entering a bear market in 2025?
A: While no one can predict the future with certainty, multiple technical models suggest that Q4 2025 could mark the peak of this cycle. A subsequent bear market would not be unusual given historical four-year cycle patterns tied to Bitcoin halvings.
Q: Why is $69,000 considered a key support level?
A: $69,000 was Bitcoin’s all-time high reached in November 2021. Analysts view it as both psychological and technical support—a level where long-term holders may re-enter and selling pressure potentially eases.
Q: Can institutional demand prevent a crash?
A: Institutional inflows have added resilience to this cycle, particularly through ETFs and corporate balance sheets. However, institutions also sell during downturns. While they may soften the fall, they are unlikely to stop a bear market entirely.
Q: What indicators should I watch for confirmation of a top?
A: Key signals include RSI divergence, volume decline during price advances, extended moves above EMAs, and extreme sentiment readings (e.g., fear & greed index at "extreme greed").
Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin now?
A: That depends on your investment strategy and risk tolerance. Some traders take partial profits near projected cycle tops, while long-term holders (HODLers) often ride through volatility. Always do your own research or consult a financial advisor.
Q: How reliable are Bitcoin cycle predictions?
A: Cycle models are based on historical trends and halving events but aren't foolproof. Each cycle evolves differently due to regulatory changes, macro conditions, and adoption rates. Use them as guidance—not gospel.
Preparing for the Next Phase of the Crypto Cycle
As we move deeper into 2025, investors must balance optimism with realism. Yes, Bitcoin has defied skeptics before—but every bull market eventually ends. The current signs—overextended prices, bearish momentum divergences, and maturing cycle timelines—suggest prudence is warranted.
Whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term holder, staying informed and monitoring key technical levels can help you make better decisions when volatility returns.
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Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s journey continues to be one of extremes—driven by innovation, speculation, and cyclical investor behavior. While new highs generate excitement, experienced market participants know that timing exits is just as important as timing entries.
With growing evidence that BTC “looks exhausted,” now is the time to review your strategy, assess risk exposure, and prepare for what may be the final chapter of this bull run. Whether the next major move takes Bitcoin higher or pulls it back toward $69,000, being ready ensures you won’t be caught off guard.
Keep watching the charts. Keep analyzing the signals. And above all—keep trading smart.