The current state of Bitcoin’s long-term holders reveals a surprising trend: despite the recent price rebound above $107,000, unrealized profits remain relatively muted compared to previous market peaks. According to on-chain analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, long-term Bitcoin holders are now approaching a psychological and financial threshold last seen during the October 2024 correction — a moment increasingly viewed as a pivotal point in the current market cycle.
This insight is derived from the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin’s current market price to the average cost basis of long-term holders. Today, that ratio sits at approximately 220%, indicating that long-term holders are, on average, sitting on 2.2 times their original investment. While this may sound substantial, it pales in comparison to earlier highs in the same bull cycle.
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MVRV Ratio Reveals Shift in Holder Sentiment
In March 2024, when Bitcoin reached $74,500, the MVRV ratio peaked at **300%**. By December 2024, as prices touched $108,000, the ratio climbed even higher — reaching 350%. The fact that today’s MVRV is significantly lower suggests that a large portion of long-term holders acquired their Bitcoin at elevated price levels, likely during or after the late 2024 rally.
This shift has important implications. A lower MVRV means fewer holders are in a position to realize massive gains, which in turn reduces immediate selling pressure. Historically, sharp corrections have followed periods when MVRV exceeded 350%, as profit-taking accelerates once psychological thresholds are hit.
📉 "Unrealized profits of long-term holders continue to decline and are now approaching levels last seen during the October 2024 correction. The average unrealized profit, based on the MVRV ratio, currently stands at around 220%."
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), July 1, 2025
Price Targets Needed to Restore Past Profit Levels
To return to the 300% MVRV level seen in March 2024, Bitcoin would need to rise to approximately $135,200**, assuming an average cost basis of $33,800 among long-term holders. To match the December 2024 peak of 357%, the price would need to reach roughly $154,400**.
These figures align with revised cycle top projections from analysts who initially forecasted a $135,000 ceiling in late 2024. Updated models from May 2025 now suggest a broader range of **$120,000–$150,000, with a projected peak likely occurring between August and September 2025**. This convergence of on-chain data and price modeling strengthens the case for further upside — but also underscores growing caution as thresholds near.
Historical Context: How Today Compares to Past Cycles
Looking back at previous bull markets provides perspective on where we stand today:
- In December 2017, at Bitcoin’s then-all-time high of $19,500, long-term holders enjoyed unrealized gains exceeding 4,000%.
- During the 2021 cycle, MVRV peaked at 1,230% when Bitcoin hit $63,000 in April. By November 2021, despite a higher price of ~$68,400, unrealized gains had already dropped to 340%, signaling widespread profit-taking.
Today’s 220% MVRV is modest by historical standards — suggesting that while sentiment is positive, the market has not yet entered the euphoric phase typically seen near cycle tops. This could indicate room for further appreciation before widespread selling begins.
Market Conditions: Room to Run, But Risks Loom
As of the latest data, Bitcoin trades around $106,750, showing little movement over the past 24 hours. The relatively low profit margin across long-term holdings implies reduced urgency to sell — a bullish signal that could support continued upward momentum.
However, on-chain metrics alone don’t tell the full story. External factors such as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation), and global liquidity trends play critical roles in shaping price direction. Sudden shifts in regulatory sentiment or institutional demand could trigger sharp reversals, even in a fundamentally sound market.
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Is the Market Overheated?
Current indicators suggest no signs of overheating. Unlike previous cycle peaks marked by extreme leverage, rampant speculation, and social media frenzy, today’s rally appears more measured. Institutional participation via ETFs has added stability, while retail engagement remains below euphoric levels.
Still, investors should remain vigilant. The path to $135K–$150K will likely be volatile. Those waiting for profit milestones to materialize must balance optimism with risk management — especially as the window for new entries at lower cost bases narrows.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the MVRV ratio and why does it matter?
A: The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market price to the average price paid by long-term holders. It helps identify whether the asset is overvalued (high MVRV) or undervalued (low MVRV), offering insight into potential turning points.
Q: Why are long-term holders’ profits lower now than in late 2024?
A: Many long-term holders bought Bitcoin at higher prices during or after the December 2024 peak. As a result, their unrealized gains are smaller today, even with prices near $107K.
Q: At what price could widespread selling occur?
A: Historical patterns suggest increased selling pressure tends to emerge when MVRV reaches round numbers like 300% or 350%. That corresponds to prices between $135K and $154K, depending on the cost basis.
Q: Does low profit-taking mean Bitcoin will keep rising?
A: Not necessarily — but it does reduce immediate downward pressure. Continued gains will depend on sustained demand from institutions and macro conditions.
Q: How reliable are on-chain metrics like MVRV?
A: On-chain data provides valuable insights into holder behavior and network health. However, it should be combined with macroeconomic analysis and market sentiment for a complete view.
Q: When is the expected peak of this Bitcoin cycle?
A: Analysts project a likely top between August and September 2025, with a target range of $120,000–$150,000 based on updated models and on-chain trends.
Bitcoin’s journey through 2025 continues to unfold with cautious optimism. While long-term holders aren’t yet enjoying the windfall profits of previous peaks, the data suggests the market may still have room to grow. As thresholds approach, awareness of both opportunity and risk will be key.