Why Professional Traders Are Preparing to Short Bitcoin — A Deep Dive Into the Next Market Move

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Bitcoin has once again captured global attention as retail investors flock to buy, convinced that a new bull run is imminent. However, behind the scenes, seasoned professional traders are taking a more cautious — and in some cases, bearish — stance. While retail enthusiasm builds, institutional-grade analysts are warning of a potential sharp correction before any sustainable rally can take hold.

In this article, we’ll explore the insights of two respected voices in the crypto trading community: DA Capital’s Zi-Jun and Cetoz from Nian Nian Mao Research. Their analysis dives into market structure, historical patterns around Bitcoin halving events, ETF approval risks, and strategic entry points — offering a balanced, data-driven perspective that contrasts sharply with the prevailing retail optimism.

The Contrarian View: Why Pros Are Watching for a Downturn

While social media buzzes with “to the moon” sentiment, experienced traders are focusing on technical structure and macroeconomic signals. Both Zi-Jun and Cetoz emphasize that Bitcoin often corrects significantly after halving events, despite widespread expectations of immediate price surges.

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced an average drawdown of 30–50% post-halving before entering its true bull phase. This pattern has repeated in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Given that the most recent halving occurred in April 2024, many professionals believe we're still in the early, volatile stage of the cycle — not the acceleration phase.

👉 Discover how market cycles shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory — and when the real rally might begin.

This timing mismatch between retail excitement and institutional caution creates a classic setup where overleveraged long positions could be wiped out by a sharp correction.

DA Capital’s Zi-Jun: Structural Weakness Ahead?

Zi-Jun, founder of DA Capital — a firm composed of former Binance top traders and finance graduates from elite U.S. institutions — points to several red flags:

“These are not conditions for a breakout,” Zi-Jun notes. “They’re conditions for a squeeze — and right now, it’s the longs who are most vulnerable.”

He doesn’t rule out a bull market eventually, but stresses that a deeper correction to $45,000–$50,000 could be necessary to shake out weak hands and reset sentiment.

Cetoz from Nian Nian Mao: Halving History Doesn’t Lie

Cetoz, a researcher with institutional trading experience in traditional markets, reinforces this view with data-driven analysis. He highlights that every previous bull run began only after a post-halving shakeout:

“People forget that fear is part of the cycle,” Cetoz explains. “The halving reduces sell pressure from miners, but it doesn’t instantly create demand. That takes time — and often, a painful dip to reset expectations.”

He also questions whether the much-anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will deliver the expected inflows. “Regulatory approval doesn’t equal retail adoption,” he warns. “We may see short-term pumps, but without sustained capital inflows, the rally could fizzle.”

Will the Bitcoin ETF Spark a Rally?

The potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. remains a key narrative driving bullish sentiment. However, both analysts urge caution:

Cetoz argues that while ETFs are a positive development long-term, they’re unlikely to trigger an immediate parabolic move. Instead, they may provide a floor for prices during corrections, not a rocket ship upward.

👉 See how ETF developments impact market psychology — and what to watch next.

When Should You Consider Buying?

So, if a pullback is likely, when is the optimal time to enter?

Both experts suggest watching for these signals:

  1. A clear break below $55,000 with high volume, followed by stabilization.
  2. Declining volatility and fear index (VIX-like metrics) signaling reduced panic.
  3. Sustained on-chain accumulation by large wallets and institutions.
  4. Positive macro trends, such as rate cuts or improved risk appetite in equities.

Zi-Jun recommends waiting for “a retest of the 200-week moving average,” which currently sits around $48,000. “That’s where real value emerges,” he says.

Cetoz adds: “Don’t chase momentum. Let the market prove its strength after the shakeout.”

Key Takeaways: Patience Over Hype

The core message from these professionals is clear: don’t confuse optimism with strategy. While Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, the path ahead is likely to include significant volatility.

Retail investors often buy at peaks driven by emotion; professionals prepare during uncertainty. By understanding historical patterns, monitoring on-chain data, and respecting market structure, you can position yourself ahead of — not behind — the next major move.

👉 Learn how to analyze market cycles like a pro trader and avoid emotional decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is Bitcoin guaranteed to go up after the halving?
A: No. History shows that while bull markets typically follow halvings, they don’t start immediately. A correction often precedes the real rally.

Q: How low could Bitcoin drop?
A: Based on historical patterns and current technicals, many analysts see $45,000–$50,000 as a potential support zone before a sustained recovery.

Q: Are spot Bitcoin ETFs a game-changer?
A: They’re significant for mainstream adoption, but their immediate price impact may be limited. Long-term inflows matter more than initial hype.

Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin now?
A: That depends on your risk tolerance and investment horizon. If you’re in for the long term, short-term dips may present buying opportunities.

Q: What indicators do pros watch?
A: Key metrics include on-chain accumulation, futures funding rates, ETF flows, macroeconomic trends, and volatility indices.

Q: Can retail traders profit in a bearish market?
A: Yes — through strategies like dollar-cost averaging, options, or shorting via regulated platforms (with proper risk management).

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